Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LEP3574661701288
Le Petit Marseillais Extra Doux Douche Péché Blanche Bio & Nectarine Bio 650 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 78.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+71.4%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 9
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
LEP3574661701288
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 202 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Le Petit Marseillais Extra Doux Douche Péché Blanche Bio & Nectarine Bio 650 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -78.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (819 days of history, 228 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.28 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 57 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 20.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 77.1 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 202.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.7K |