Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAS3600550808339
Cica-crème Réparatrice MIXA - Zones Fragilisées - 50 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
2
≈ 6.1 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 66
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
LAS3600550808339
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 94 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cica-crème Réparatrice MIXA - Zones Fragilisées - 50 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1246 days of history, 44 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.55 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 40.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.2K |