Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875816847
76323 La Roche-Posay Cicaplast Baume B5+ Ultra-Réparateur Apaisant 100 ml
hero
1P
HYGIENE BEBE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 139
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-21
LAR3337875816847
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 448 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
76323 La Roche-Posay Cicaplast Baume B5+ Ultra-Réparateur Apaisant 100 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1309 days of history, 150 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 114.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 101.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 448.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 62.2K |