Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875777759
Effaclar-La Roche-Posay Effaclar H Iso-Biome Crème Lavante Hydratante Apaisante Anti-Imperfections 200 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
11
Σ Stock across 16 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 167
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
LAR3337875777759
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 46 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Effaclar-La Roche-Posay Effaclar H Iso-Biome Crème Lavante Hydratante Apaisante Anti-Imperfections 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1190 days of history, 25 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.42 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 45.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.6K |