Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875722827
Effaclar-La Roche-Posay Effaclar Sérum Visage Anti Imperfections Micro Peeling Peaux Tendance Acnéique 30 ml
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 55.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
7
≈ 7.8 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 318
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-02
LAR3337875722827
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 64 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Effaclar-La Roche-Posay Effaclar Sérum Visage Anti Imperfections Micro Peeling Peaux Tendance Acnéique 30 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -55.6% · on-hand 7 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1197 days of history, 40 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.58 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 19.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 21.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 64.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.4K |