Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875588348
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 68.8% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-28.6%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
20
≈ 19.4 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 138
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
LAR3337875588348
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 81 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -68.8% · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1176 days of history, 98 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.73 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 30.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 80.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.2K |