Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875588348
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,061
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
5
≈ 4.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 137
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-27
LAR3337875588348
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 83 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 5 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1288 days of history, 115 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.71 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 82.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.3K |