Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337875588348
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
6
▼ 45.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
3,591
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
19
≈ 17.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 125
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-24
LAR3337875588348
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 79 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
TOLERIANE Sensitive Riche – Crème Hydratation & Confort Peaux Sensibles · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, trending down -45.5% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1225 days of history, 107 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 40.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 79.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.9K |