Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR3337872413025
La Roche Posay Effaclar Mat Crème Hydratante Sebo-Régulatrice 40ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
316
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 153
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-23
LAR3337872413025
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 147 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
La Roche Posay Effaclar Mat Crème Hydratante Sebo-Régulatrice 40ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -20.0% · on-hand 532 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1267 days of history, 90 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.92 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 49.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 10.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 147.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.6K |