Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · LAR1698982447001
La Roche-Posay Effaclar Duo+M Soin Triple Correction Anti-Imperfections 40 ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▼ 6.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+87.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
2,252
≈ 941.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 165
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
LAR1698982447001
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 138 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
La Roche-Posay Effaclar Duo+M Soin Triple Correction Anti-Imperfections 40 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending down -6.2% · on-hand 2252 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (938 days of history, 70 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 16.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 45.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 10.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 138.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 22.8K |