Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · KIN8470003847766
KIN GINGIVAL PATE DENTIFRICE
longtail
3P
DENTAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 61.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+100.0%
vs same 4w last year (4 units)
Current stock
1,573
≈ 726.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 40
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
KIN8470003847766
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 133 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
KIN GINGIVAL PATE DENTIFRICE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -61.9% · on-hand 1573 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1141 days of history, 275 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 2.13 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 47.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 133.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.3K |