Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · JJA3561863332174
1 MALETTE DE COLORIAGE 25 PIECES FEUTRE PASTEL CRAYONS PAPETERIE
longtail
1P + 3P
DESSIN - COLORIAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 91.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
117
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
86
≈ 252.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 23
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2026-09-29
JJA3561863332174
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 92 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
1 MALETTE DE COLORIAGE 25 PIECES FEUTRE PASTEL CRAYONS PAPETERIE · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -91.7% · on-hand 85 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (693 days of history, 21 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.14 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 1.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 4.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 30.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 92.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.2K |