Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ISI1705361745048
Isispharma Teen Derm Hydra Hydratant Compensateur Apaisant 100Ml
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 60.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+700.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
17
≈ 8.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 203
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
ISI1705361745048
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 121 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Isispharma Teen Derm Hydra Hydratant Compensateur Apaisant 100Ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -60.0% · on-hand 17 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (525 days of history, 121 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.17 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 20 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 14.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 40.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.6K |