Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · INT6941057450308
Ballon de plage "Glossy" 61 cm
longtail
3P
JEUX D'EAU - JEUX DE PLAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▲ 40.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
6
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-06-30
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-06-30 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 15
avg of last 10 sells · latest 2026-05-06
INT6941057450308
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 74 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Ballon de plage "Glossy" 61 cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending up +40.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (252 days of history, 24 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 17.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 74.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.1K |