Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · HP3YM61AE
HP 305 Cartouche d'encre noire authentique (3YM61AE) pour HP DeskJet 2300/2710/2720/Plus4100, HP Envy 6000/Pro 6400
longtail
3P
IMPRESSION - SCANNER
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
40
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 169
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-25
HP3YM61AE
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 104 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
HP 305 Cartouche d'encre noire authentique (3YM61AE) pour HP DeskJet 2300/2710/2720/Plus4100, HP Envy 6000/Pro 6400 · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 51 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1155 days of history, 100 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.67 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 5.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 4.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 103.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 17.6K |