Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · HER8711661020048
Herôme Durcisseur Extra Fort Pour Ongles – 10 ML
longtail
3P
ONGLERIE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 80.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,538
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 179
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-27
HER8711661020048
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 61 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Herôme Durcisseur Extra Fort Pour Ongles – 10 ML · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -80.0% · on-hand 1577 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 112 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 5 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 6 weeks → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 60.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.8K |