Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · HEL8470001977793
Heliocare 360° Pigment Solution Fluide SPF50 — 50 ml
longtail
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
3
▼ 57.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-62.5%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
434
≈ 629.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 178
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
HEL8470001977793
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 71 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Heliocare 360° Pigment Solution Fluide SPF50 — 50 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, trending down -57.1% · on-hand 434 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1008 days of history, 75 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.68 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 25.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 71.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.7K |