Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · GUI6456753644031
Montre Intelligente Connectée Enfant - Smartwatch Telephone Fille Garçon avec Pédomètre, SOS, Musique, Appareil Photo, Reveil Rose
longtail
3P
MONTRE INTELLIGENTE - MONTRE CONNECTEE
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 54.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
19
≈ 14.5 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 134
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
GUI6456753644031
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Montre Intelligente Connectée Enfant - Smartwatch Telephone Fille Garçon avec Pédomètre, SOS, Musique, Appareil Photo, Reveil Rose · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -54.5% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (959 days of history, 78 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.56 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 7.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 24.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 23.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 66.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.9K |