Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · GOU3010470170117
GOURMET Pâtée Gold mousseline pour chat - 4 x 85g
longtail
1P + 3P
ALIMENTATION
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 33.3% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
46
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
14
≈ 23.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 48
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
GOU3010470170117
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 150 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GOURMET Pâtée Gold mousseline pour chat - 4 x 85g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -33.3% · on-hand 14 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1183 days of history, 48 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.81 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 71.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 149.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.2K |