Demand Forecast
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SKU · GOU3010470170117
GOURMET Pâtée Gold mousseline pour chat - 4 x 85g
longtail
1P
ALIMENTATION
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-75.0%
vs same 4w last year (8 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 47
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2026-04-15
GOU3010470170117
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 144 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
GOURMET Pâtée Gold mousseline pour chat - 4 x 85g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1134 days of history, 38 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 41.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 144.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.8K |