Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · GIL4015600810849
Déodorant anti-transpirant - GILLETTE - POWER RUSH - Gel - 70 ml - Sans Alcool
longtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 36.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
220
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
1
≈ 0.5 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-29
GIL4015600810849
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 128 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant anti-transpirant - GILLETTE - POWER RUSH - Gel - 70 ml - Sans Alcool · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -36.4% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (833 days of history, 148 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.70 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 13.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 57.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 128.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.9K |