Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · GIL4015600810849
Déodorant anti-transpirant - GILLETTE - POWER RUSH - Gel - 70 ml - Sans Alcool
longtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+140.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
4
≈ 2.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 30
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
GIL4015600810849
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 103 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Déodorant anti-transpirant - GILLETTE - POWER RUSH - Gel - 70 ml - Sans Alcool · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 4 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (777 days of history, 138 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.77 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 103.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.1K |