Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · GAR3600540539397
Crème GARNIER soin de nutrition intense Ultra Doux Avocat Karité - 200 ml
longtail
1P + 3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 53.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
190
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
10
≈ 4.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 39
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-03
GAR3600540539397
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 134 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème GARNIER soin de nutrition intense Ultra Doux Avocat Karité - 200 ml · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -53.6% · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 196 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 28 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 21.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 69.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 38.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 133.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.2K |