Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · FRA1727889920229
Gel - Crème définisseur de boucles, anti-frisottis 2 en 1 - Centifolia
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
24
Σ Stock across 2 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 160
avg of last 13 sells · latest 2026-04-10
FRA1727889920229
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 34 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gel - Crème définisseur de boucles, anti-frisottis 2 en 1 - Centifolia · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 24 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (497 days of history, 7 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.32 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 8.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 34.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.4K |