Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · FOM1697809260286
Matelas gonflable camping - BESTWAY - 1 place -185x76x22 cm avec pompe à pied intégrée
longtail
1P
CAMPING - CAMP DE BASE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
42
▲ 1300.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 6 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 219
avg of last 26 sells · latest 2025-07-04
FOM1697809260286
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 57 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Matelas gonflable camping - BESTWAY - 1 place -185x76x22 cm avec pompe à pied intégrée · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 42 units, trending up +1300.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 49 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.90 — high (lumpy)
- Recent trend: last 4w = 42 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 15.5 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 17.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 57.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 12.5K |