Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · EUC4005800119361
Eucerin Sun Protection Oil Control Sun Gel-Crème SPF 50+ 50 ml
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
33
▼ 45.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-86.9%
vs same 4w last year (252 units)
Current stock
1,951
≈ 99.7 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 146
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
EUC4005800119361
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 334 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eucerin Sun Protection Oil Control Sun Gel-Crème SPF 50+ 50 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 33 units, trending down -45.9% · on-hand 1951 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1085 days of history, 983 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.48 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 33 units · prev 4w = 61 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 8.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 41.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 125.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 19.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 121.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 333.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 48.8K |