Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · EUC4005800119361
Eucerin Sun Protection Oil Control Sun Gel-Crème SPF 50+ 50 ml
hero
3P
SOLAIRES
Last 4 weeks demand
21
▼ 38.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2,337
Σ Stock across 13 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 154
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
EUC4005800119361
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 334 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Eucerin Sun Protection Oil Control Sun Gel-Crème SPF 50+ 50 ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 21 units, trending down -38.2% · on-hand 4557 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1141 days of history, 893 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.50 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 21 units · prev 4w = 34 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 11.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 44.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 177.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 17.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 71.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 334.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 51.5K |