Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250947516027
Essence Lash Princess Mascara Voluminizadora ¡real!
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
25
▲ 8.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
2
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
ESS4250947516027
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 323 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Lash Princess Mascara Voluminizadora ¡real! · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 25 units, trending up +8.7% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1176 days of history, 262 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 25 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 14.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 46.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 162.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 19.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 79.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 322.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 10.3K |