Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250947516027
Essence Lash Princess Mascara Voluminizadora ¡real!
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 44.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
64
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
ESS4250947516027
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 142 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence Lash Princess Mascara Voluminizadora ¡real! · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -44.4% · on-hand 64 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1239 days of history, 235 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.00 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 42.8 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 142.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.6K |