Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250587773200
Polvos Compactos Matificantes - Pastel Beige - Essence
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-20
ESS4250587773200
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 62 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Polvos Compactos Matificantes - Pastel Beige - Essence · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1155 days of history, 94 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.72 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 30.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 62.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |