Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250587739084
ESSENCE MÁSCARA VOLUMINIZADORA I LOVE EXTREME CRAZY 9ML
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▼ 42.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
45
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
ESS4250587739084
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 182 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ESSENCE MÁSCARA VOLUMINIZADORA I LOVE EXTREME CRAZY 9ML · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending down -42.9% · on-hand 47 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1316 days of history, 255 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.70 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 21 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 56.9 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 10.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 182.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 8.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.1K |