Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250587739084
ESSENCE MÁSCARA VOLUMINIZADORA I LOVE EXTREME CRAZY 9ML
hero
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
4
▼ 82.6% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 28
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-17
ESS4250587739084
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 321 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ESSENCE MÁSCARA VOLUMINIZADORA I LOVE EXTREME CRAZY 9ML · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 4 units, trending down -82.6% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1239 days of history, 298 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.69 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 4 units · prev 4w = 23 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 7.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 32.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 142.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 61.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 321.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.1K |