Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250587705461
essence liquis ink eyeliner waterprook
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
3
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
1
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P)
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 27
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-29
ESS4250587705461
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 25 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
essence liquis ink eyeliner waterprook · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 3 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1204 days of history, 9 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.58 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 3 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 2.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 11.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 24.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 662 |