Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250035200746
essence Kajal Pencil, 04 White
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
11
▲ 22.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
1
≈ 1.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
ESS4250035200746
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 70 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
essence Kajal Pencil, 04 White · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 11 units, trending up +22.2% · on-hand 1 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 70 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.74 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 11 units · prev 4w = 9 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 26.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 70.1 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.2K |