Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4250035200746
essence Kajal Pencil, 04 White
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
1
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
10
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 16
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-06-17
ESS4250035200746
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 87 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
essence Kajal Pencil, 04 White · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1232 days of history, 65 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.75 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 3.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 21.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 5.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 86.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.3K |