Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729394606
Gloss à Lèvres - Essence - Juicy Bomb - 101 Lovely Litchi - Vegan - Ultra-brillant
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
6
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
-70.0%
vs same 4w last year (20 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 14
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-30
ESS4059729394606
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 103 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Gloss à Lèvres - Essence - Juicy Bomb - 101 Lovely Litchi - Vegan - Ultra-brillant · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (735 days of history, 154 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.92 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 9.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 26.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 103.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |