Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729394583
Essence - Gloss à Lèvres Juicy Bomb Shiny Lipgloss - 103 Proud Papaya
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
10
▼ 41.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-9.1%
vs same 4w last year (11 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
ESS4059729394583
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 122 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Gloss à Lèvres Juicy Bomb Shiny Lipgloss - 103 Proud Papaya · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 10 units, trending down -41.2% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (735 days of history, 235 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.76 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 10 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.3 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 17.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 43.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 43.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 121.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |