Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729384430
Essence - Crayon à Lèvres 8H Matte Confort - 07 Classic Red
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
DORMANT
SKU existed but sold 0 units same 4w last year
Current stock
2
≈ 3.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 17
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
ESS4059729384430
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 55 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Crayon à Lèvres 8H Matte Confort - 07 Classic Red · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 2 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1071 days of history, 41 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 4.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 3.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 16.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 54.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 922 |