Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729381033
Blush - Essence - Baby Got Blush - Couleur Rose - Texture Crémeuse - Vegan
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
15
▲ 25.0% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-16.7%
vs same 4w last year (18 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-04
ESS4059729381033
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 215 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Blush - Essence - Baby Got Blush - Couleur Rose - Texture Crémeuse - Vegan · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 15 units, trending up +25.0% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (980 days of history, 178 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.25 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 15 units · prev 4w = 12 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 3.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 15.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 48.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 9.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 56.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 214.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 7.5K |