Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729371959
Essence - Crayon Sourcils Wow What a Brow Pen Waterproof - 03 Dark Brown
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
0
Σ Stock across 5 live offers
1P stock
0
not in latest 1P warehouse snapshot
Unit price
MAD 33
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-19
ESS4059729371959
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 47 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Crayon Sourcils Wow What a Brow Pen Waterproof - 03 Dark Brown · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (798 days of history, 19 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 13.6 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 14.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 46.8 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.5K |