Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729302908
Essence - Brillant à Lèvres Extreme Shine Volume - 102 Sweet Dreams
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
2
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-95.2%
vs same 4w last year (42 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 21
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-04-25
ESS4059729302908
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 190 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Brillant à Lèvres Extreme Shine Volume - 102 Sweet Dreams · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (728 days of history, 286 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 4.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 65.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 58.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 189.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.1K |