Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS4059729207241
ESSENCE LASH PRINCESS LASH EFFECT MASCARA WATWRPROOF
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
35
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
ESS4059729207241
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 93 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
ESSENCE LASH PRINCESS LASH EFFECT MASCARA WATWRPROOF · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, stable demand · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1120 days of history, 66 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.02 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 27.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 12.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 93.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.0K |