Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1743498221872
Essence - Crayon à Lèvres Tattoo Line n' Stain! - 02 Must Have Brown
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 52.9% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
7
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-19
ESS1743498221872
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 145 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Crayon à Lèvres Tattoo Line n' Stain! - 02 Must Have Brown · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -52.9% · on-hand 9 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (357 days of history, 140 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.62 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 47.4 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 16.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 48.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 145.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.7K |