Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1741039813198
Essence - Poudre Sourcils Brow Powder Duo Set - 03 Dark
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
1
▼ 66.7% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 31
avg of last 20 sells · latest 2026-05-04
ESS1741039813198
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-22 · Total forecast: 54 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Poudre Sourcils Brow Powder Duo Set - 03 Dark · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 1 units, trending down -66.7% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (266 days of history, — units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.48 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 1 units · prev 4w = 3 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 4.6 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 14.7 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 3.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 15.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 53.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 1.6K |