Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1719601476481
Essence - Blush Liquide Baby Got Blush - 40 Coral Crush
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 28.6% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+0.0%
vs same 4w last year (5 units)
Current stock
11
≈ 5.6 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 35
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-03
ESS1719601476481
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 66 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Blush Liquide Baby Got Blush - 40 Coral Crush · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -28.6% · on-hand 11 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (679 days of history, 128 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.65 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 7 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 21.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 5.9 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 24.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 65.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.3K |