Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1712949276053
Essence - Kit Gel Lifting Sourcils -
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
6
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Year-over-year
+500.0%
vs same 4w last year (1 units)
Current stock
23
≈ 9.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 45
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
ESS1712949276053
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 110 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Kit Gel Lifting Sourcils - · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 6 units, stable demand · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (742 days of history, 77 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.78 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 6 units · prev 4w = 6 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.1 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 8.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 28.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 28.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 110.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.9K |