Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1712949276053
Essence - Kit Gel Lifting Sourcils -
longtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
5
▼ 37.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
5
Σ Stock across 1 live offer (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 42
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-17
ESS1712949276053
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 91 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Kit Gel Lifting Sourcils - · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, trending down -37.5% · on-hand 6 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (847 days of history, 89 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 8 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 7.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 25.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 17.9 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 42.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 90.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.7 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 3.8K |