Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1706088901412
Essence - Mascara - Without Limits - Longueur Extrême - Volume - 01 Noir
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
18
▼ 37.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
-57.1%
vs same 4w last year (42 units)
Current stock
0
depleted
Unit price
MAD 38
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
ESS1706088901412
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 144 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Mascara - Without Limits - Longueur Extrême - Volume - 01 Noir · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 18 units, trending down -37.9% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (742 days of history, 288 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.63 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 18 units · prev 4w = 29 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 5.2 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 21.8 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 57.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 11.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 144.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.5K |