Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ESS1706088901412
Essence - Mascara - Without Limits - Longueur Extrême - Volume - 01 Noir
midtail
3P
MAQUILLAGE VISAGE - CORPS
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▲ 350.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
33
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
ESS1706088901412
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 164 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Essence - Mascara - Without Limits - Longueur Extrême - Volume - 01 Noir · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending up +350.0% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (854 days of history, 225 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.66 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 2 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 6.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 60.7 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 15.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 37.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 163.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 5.2K |