Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · ELC3571940003194
-Elcéa Coloration Experte Permanente au Lait d'Hibiscus (Coloration : 5 Châtain Clair)
longtail
3P
CAPILLAIRE
Last 4 weeks demand
0
≈ stable (0.0% vs prev 4w)
Offer Stock
20
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-11-03
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-11-03 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 116
avg of last 4 sells · latest 2026-07-22
ELC3571940003194
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-11-02 · Total forecast: 18 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
-Elcéa Coloration Experte Permanente au Lait d'Hibiscus (Coloration : 5 Châtain Clair) · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 0 units, stable demand · on-hand 20 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (875 days of history, 1 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.00 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 0 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.0 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 1.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 6.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 17.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.0K |