Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DUR5010232967465
Durex TopSafe – 12 Préservatifs Lubrifiés Facile-On
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
22
▲ 69.2% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+214.3%
vs same 4w last year (7 units)
Current stock
1,142
≈ 345.0 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 52
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-05
DUR5010232967465
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Durex TopSafe – 12 Préservatifs Lubrifiés Facile-On · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 22 units, trending up +69.2% · on-hand 1142 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (917 days of history, 199 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.77 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 22 units · prev 4w = 13 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 11.5 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 37.2 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 7.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 126.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.9 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.5K |