Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DUR5010232967465
Durex TopSafe – 12 Préservatifs Lubrifiés Facile-On
midtail
3P
SEXUALITE - GROSSESSE
Last 4 weeks demand
32
▲ 100.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
1,271
Σ Stock across 4 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 46
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
DUR5010232967465
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 187 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Durex TopSafe – 12 Préservatifs Lubrifiés Facile-On · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 32 units, trending up +100.0% · on-hand 326 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (973 days of history, 197 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.80 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 32 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 6.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 25.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 88.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 11.4 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 49.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 187.0 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 8.7K |