Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DRS6902540752361
Derma roller system
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
28
▼ 68.9% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+40.0%
vs same 4w last year (20 units)
Current stock
718
≈ 31.2 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
DRS6902540752361
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 484 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma roller system · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 28 units, trending down -68.9% · on-hand 718 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1141 days of history, 1,277 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.06 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 28 units · prev 4w = 90 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 20.6 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 73.4 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 175.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 35.5 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 181.6 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 484.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 13.5 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 6.3K |