Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DRS6902540752361
Derma roller system
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
24
▲ 71.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9,986
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 12
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-31
DRS6902540752361
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 368 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma roller system · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 24 units, trending up +71.4% · on-hand 9986 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1197 days of history, 1,223 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.09 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 24 units · prev 4w = 14 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): 1 week → past demand likely understated
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 8.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 36.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 162.4 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 13.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 73.5 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 368.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 7.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 4.3K |