Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DRS6902540752361
Derma roller system
hero
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
14
▼ 12.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
9,935
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 13
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
DRS6902540752361
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 929 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Derma roller system · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 14 units, trending down -12.5% · on-hand 9927 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1260 days of history, 1,209 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.12 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 14 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 8.2 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 342.5 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 18.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 63.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 928.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 9.0 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 11.8K |