Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · DEC3561866905559
Mug - FAMILY - Ma Maman est géniale - Céramique - Blanc et rose - 9,7x8,2x9,7cm
longtail
1P + 3P
SERVICE PETIT DEJEUNER
Last 4 weeks demand
2
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
34
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-14
1P stock
10
≈ 92.0 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-14
Unit price
MAD 32
avg of last 14 sells · latest 2026-09-28
DEC3561866905559
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-10-05 · Total forecast: 30 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Mug - FAMILY - Ma Maman est géniale - Céramique - Blanc et rose - 9,7x8,2x9,7cm · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 2 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 10 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (959 days of history, 8 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.33 — low
- Recent trend: last 4w = 2 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 0.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 0.0 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 0.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 2.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 8.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 29.6 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 1.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 955 |