Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · COL36016
Bouée pneu - BESTWAY - Ø 91 cm - PVC - Mixte - Extérieur
longtail
1P + 3P
JEUX D'EAU - JEUX DE PLAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
19
▲ 375.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
144
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
36
≈ 103.4 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 26
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
COL36016
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 91 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Bouée pneu - BESTWAY - Ø 91 cm - PVC - Mixte - Extérieur · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 19 units, trending up +375.0% · on-hand 36 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1099 days of history, 25 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.98 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 19 units · prev 4w = 4 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 5.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.8 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 47.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 9.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 32.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 91.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 2.3 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 2.3K |