Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875795456
Cerave SA Gel Nettoyant Anti Rugosités 473ml
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
5
new activity (no prior baseline)
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 155
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-25
CER3337875795456
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 131 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave SA Gel Nettoyant Anti Rugosités 473ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 5 units, new activity (no prior baseline) · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1246 days of history, 137 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 5 units · prev 4w = 0 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 68.3 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 8.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 34.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 131.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 20.3K |