Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597449
Crème Hydratante Visage - CeraVe - 52ml - Peaux Normales à Sèches - Texture Ultra Légère - Non Comédogène
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
8
▼ 50.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
159
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-08-05 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 94
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-07-30
CER3337875597449
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 140 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Hydratante Visage - CeraVe - 52ml - Peaux Normales à Sèches - Texture Ultra Légère - Non Comédogène · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 8 units, trending down -50.0% · on-hand 135 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1253 days of history, 118 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 8 units · prev 4w = 16 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 4.1 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 17.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 70.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 31.7 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 139.7 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.4 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 13.2K |