Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597449
Crème Hydratante Visage - CeraVe - 52ml - Peaux Normales à Sèches - Texture Ultra Légère - Non Comédogène
midtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
12
▲ 20.0% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
27
Σ Stock across 3 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the 2026-10-02 snapshot
Unit price
MAD 98
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
CER3337875597449
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 92 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Crème Hydratante Visage - CeraVe - 52ml - Peaux Normales à Sèches - Texture Ultra Légère - Non Comédogène · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 12 units, trending up +20.0% · on-hand 33 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1316 days of history, 104 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 1.10 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 12 units · prev 4w = 10 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.0 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 28.6 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 13.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 35.2 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 91.5 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.8 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 9.0K |