Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597395
Lait Hydratant - Cerave - 473ml - Hypoallergénique - Peaux Sensibles - Texture Lait
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 18.2% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
321
Σ Stock across 5 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
19
≈ 4.3 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 136
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
CER3337875597395
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 146 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Lait Hydratant - Cerave - 473ml - Hypoallergénique - Peaux Sensibles - Texture Lait · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -18.2% · on-hand 19 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1239 days of history, 209 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.87 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 11 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 3.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 16.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 69.8 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 6.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 29.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 146.3 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 3.2 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 19.9K |