Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597388
CeraVe Baume Hydratant Visage et Corps Peaux Sèches à Très Sèches 454g
longtail
3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
7
▼ 61.1% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+16.7%
vs same 4w last year (6 units)
Current stock
117
≈ 39.9 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 148
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-06
CER3337875597388
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 114 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CeraVe Baume Hydratant Visage et Corps Peaux Sèches à Très Sèches 454g · in the longtail cohort · last 4 weeks 7 units, trending down -61.1% · on-hand 117 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: longtail (1183 days of history, 109 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.99 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 7 units · prev 4w = 18 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 2.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 12.9 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 36.3 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 8.8 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 36.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 114.4 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.9K |