Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597357
Cerave Gel Moussant Peaux Normales à Grasses 473ml
hero
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
32
▼ 30.4% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
25
Σ Stock across 2 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-08-05
1P stock
21
≈ 2.6 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-08-05
Unit price
MAD 134
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-08-02
CER3337875597357
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-08-03 · Total forecast: 335 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave Gel Moussant Peaux Normales à Grasses 473ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 32 units, trending down -30.4% · on-hand 23 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1246 days of history, 251 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 32 units · prev 4w = 46 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 11.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 45.3 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 192.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 15.9 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 70.6 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 334.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 10.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 45.0K |