Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597357
Cerave Gel Moussant Peaux Normales à Grasses 473ml
hero
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
OUT OF STOCK
Last 4 weeks demand
9
▼ 47.1% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
0
no live offers
1P stock
0
no 1P (MARJANEMALL) stock in the latest snapshot
Unit price
MAD 138
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-26
CER3337875597357
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 205 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
Cerave Gel Moussant Peaux Normales à Grasses 473ml · in the hero cohort · last 4 weeks 9 units, trending down -47.1% · on-hand 0 units (OUT OF STOCK)
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: hero (1302 days of history, 204 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.86 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 9 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.9 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 9.5 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 58.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 22.2 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 12.1 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 65.0 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 204.9 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | — |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 28.3K |