Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597333
CeraVe Crème Lavante Hydratante – Visage & Corps – Peaux Normales à Sèches – 473 ml
midtail
1P + 3P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
13
▼ 23.5% vs prev 4w
Offer Stock
89
Σ Stock across 6 live offers (1P + 3P) · 2026-10-02
1P stock
8
≈ 1.9 weeks of cover · MARJANEMALL · 2026-10-02
Unit price
MAD 130
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-09-28
CER3337875597333
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-09-28 · Total forecast: 127 units.
Actual
Realistic forecast (p50)
Optimistic
Out of stock
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CeraVe Crème Lavante Hydratante – Visage & Corps – Peaux Normales à Sèches – 473 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 13 units, trending down -23.5% · on-hand 8 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1316 days of history, 372 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.94 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 13 units · prev 4w = 17 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic forecast — next week | 1.4 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 4 weeks | 5.7 units |
| Realistic forecast — next 3 months | 49.3 units |
| Planning level (p75) — next 4 weeks the order-sizing basis; demand exceeds it ~1 week in 4 | 14.1 units |
| Optimistic — next week | 7.3 units |
| Optimistic — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 33.8 units |
| Optimistic — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 127.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 4.6 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 16.6K |