Demand Forecast
Drill-down by category, sub-category, or SKU (p50 + p95 model)
SKU · CER3337875597333
CeraVe Crème Lavante Hydratante – Visage & Corps – Peaux Normales à Sèches – 473 ml
midtail
1P
CORPS ET VISAGE
Last 4 weeks demand
27
▼ 62.5% vs prev 4w
Year-over-year
+170.0%
vs same 4w last year (10 units)
Current stock
40
≈ 9.3 weeks of cover
Unit price
MAD 121
avg of last 30 sells · latest 2026-05-07
CER3337875597333
History (last 52 weeks) and LightGBM p95-quantile forecast for the SKU.
Cutoff: 2026-06-08 · Total forecast: 198 units.
Actual
Forecast p50 (expected)
Forecast p95 (upper bound)
Price history
Weekly qty-weighted average (MAD) of every non-null price/cost column in the OrderBook for this SKU. Click a legend entry to hide/show a line.
Why this forecast?
CeraVe Crème Lavante Hydratante – Visage & Corps – Peaux Normales à Sèches – 473 ml · in the midtail cohort · last 4 weeks 27 units, trending down -62.5% · on-hand 40 units
Signals the model saw
- Cohort: midtail (1197 days of history, 359 units sold over 52 weeks)
- Volatility (CV): 0.96 — moderate
- Recent trend: last 4w = 27 units · prev 4w = 72 units
- Stockouts (last 13 weeks): none — history is reliable
- Calendar events firing in forecast window: none
Model output
| Realistic (p50) — next week | 14.0 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 4 weeks | 40.7 units |
| Realistic (p50) — next 3 months | 79.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next week | 26.0 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 4 weeks (reorder target) | 88.7 units |
| Optimistic (p95) — next 3 months (quarterly PO target) | 198.2 units |
| Legacy μ/wk (reorder pipeline) | 6.1 |
| Revenue exposure — optimistic, 3 months | MAD 24.0K |